2023 Commerce Worth: Nos. 41 – 50

As is custom at FanGraphs, we’re utilizing the lead-up to the commerce deadline to take inventory of the highest 50 gamers in baseball by commerce worth. For a extra detailed introduction to this 12 months’s train, in addition to a take a look at the gamers who fell simply in need of the highest 50, make sure you learn the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which could be discovered within the widget above.

For these of you who’ve been studying the Commerce Worth Sequence the previous couple of seasons, the format ought to look acquainted. For each participant, you’ll see a desk with the participant’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The desk may even embrace the participant’s assured cash, if any, the 12 months by means of which their crew has contractual management of them, final 12 months’s rank (if relevant), after which projections, contract standing, and age for every particular person season by means of 2028 (if the participant is underneath contract or crew management for these seasons). Final 12 months’s rank features a hyperlink to the related 2022 put up. Thanks are attributable to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. On the backside of the web page, there’s a grid displaying all the gamers who’ve been ranked up so far.

One word on the rankings: Notably on the backside of the record, there isn’t plenty of room between the gamers. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a motive, however there isn’t a lot of a spot between, say, the Thirty ninth-ranked participant and the sixtieth. The magnitude of the variations on this a part of the record is sort of small. A number of of the parents I talked to would possibly choose a participant within the honorable mentions part to 1 on the again finish of the record, or vice versa. I believe the broad strokes are appropriate, and that is my opinion of the very best order, however with so many gamers carrying roughly equal worth, disagreements abounded.

With that out of the way in which, let’s get to the primary batch of gamers.

Oh boy, this one was powerful for me. I take a look at my previous work yearly to attempt to establish holes in my course of, and I’ve persistently not noted gamers who haven’t but debuted within the majors. That’s largely for motive: I don’t suppose they’re completely in step with the spirit of this train. Valuations differ wildly from crew to crew, and the perfect prospects usually get traded for stars, not because the spotlight of the deal in their very own proper. However it didn’t fairly sit proper with me, and when Meg recommended Wooden for the tail finish of the record this 12 months, one thing clicked.

For essentially the most half, this record is about buying and selling for gamers who’re going to assist your crew now and sooner or later, with each side being vital. It’s nonetheless about that – you’re not going to see 18-year-old prospects within the low minors on right here irrespective of how huge the hype will get. However Wooden has a spectacular mixture of expertise and proximity to the majors that makes him match the overall idea of those rankings sufficient that I’m throwing him on right here as a signpost.

What’s he a signpost of? I believe there’s likelihood that Wooden is a fixture on the prime of commerce worth lists within the subsequent few years. It’s not a lock – he’d be larger up if it had been – however if you happen to’re on the lookout for the following participant who might need an Elly De La Cruz-like rise, Wooden matches the overall silhouette. That’s true bodily – he’s 6-foot-7 and he’s quick – however it additionally matches by way of having loud instruments and a very good really feel for the sport.

This time subsequent 12 months, Wooden will possible be in Triple-A, however I don’t suppose a meteoric main league rise is out of the query given how effectively he’s dealt with the minors to date. The service time estimate up above displays a call-up in the midst of subsequent season, although clearly it’s only a guess. There may be, in fact, some likelihood that he doesn’t pan out, and the chances that he’s pretty much as good as De La Cruz (or Corbin Carroll, or any variety of present phenoms) are undoubtedly lower than 50% in my eyes. However if you happen to’re questioning who the following capital-d Dude is gonna be, Wooden is my finest guess. Would the Nats commerce him for anybody on this vary? No manner. However he’s ranked fiftieth as a reminder that prospects most likely belong someplace on the record, even when it may be tough to determine precisely the place.

Jung’s worth has pin-balled wildly over the previous few years. He was a prime prospect coming into final season, and the Rangers cleared a spot for him, however he missed the primary half of the 12 months due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He struggled upon his return (hardly uncommon after a significant surgical procedure) and got here into 2023 with out fairly the identical hype that accompanied his earlier marketing campaign. Naturally, he lit the league on fireplace immediately, although a droop within the second half of June introduced his numbers again all the way down to earth.

Jung’s recreation is constructed round uncooked energy, and he appears like a perennial 30-homer man when wholesome. He’s an above-average defender at third base as well. His greatest weak spot is a propensity to chase, which ends up in a worrisome variety of strikeouts. It’s attributable as a lot to strike zone judgment as it’s to method; Jung isn’t notably aggressive over the center of the plate, however he swings too typically at breaking balls under the zone.

That sort of profile tends to work out most of the time; power-and-defense third basemen can put up precious seasons with out enormous on-base numbers, and Jung’s plate self-discipline is extra worrisome than unfixable. His minor league monitor report is a mark in his favor, too. The largest threat right here is damage, and it’s a significant concern at this level. Jung missed half of 2021 with a foot damage, then half of 2022 with the aforementioned shoulder problem. That’s two extra main accidents than you’d hope for. With out that historical past, Jung would end larger right here, however threat aversion issues if you’re contemplating buying and selling a number of prospects for one participant.

Hayes has been the apple of my eye for a very long time, however I’m lastly beginning to shake off the spell. He has loads going for him – he’s the very best defensive third baseman in baseball, he makes constant, loud contact, and he’s underneath contract for a very long time at a low charge. There’s only one downside: All that loud contact goes straight into the bottom, and the probabilities of that fixing itself look slim at this level.

Hayes is a generational defender, however that may solely get you to date. He put up a 3-WAR season final 12 months with an 88 wRC+, however that’s just about his ceiling except he can get himself sorted out on the plate. Whilst he’s began to raise the ball extra ceaselessly this 12 months, his hardest contact nonetheless comes on grounders, and there’s simply no offense available that manner.

If I had been a GM, I’d be calling the Pirates about Hayes as a result of an adjustment on the plate might flip him into peak Josh Donaldson in a heartbeat. However rationally, I’ve to confess {that a} sudden transformation appears more and more unlikely. You may solely be a below-average hitter for thus lengthy earlier than potential stops mattering and (lack of) manufacturing takes over. I hope I’m fallacious about Hayes’ trajectory, however at this level he appears extra like a job participant on a lovely deal than a future famous person.

Whereas we’re on the subject of gamers I like to an irrational diploma, Nootbaar is the brand new prime of the record. He has a endurance and energy talent set, persistently posting double-digit stroll charges all through his professional profession whereas producing Eightieth-percentile most exit velocities in his time with the massive league membership. He’s a plus outfielder who can play all three positions, and he even has a powerful throwing arm. In plenty of methods, he’s all the great issues concerning the numerous Cardinals outfielders of latest classic rolled into one.

With all these good issues out of the way in which, let’s get to some negatives. He hit far too many grounders within the minors, a bent that’s rearing its head once more this 12 months. He’s missed time with damage in every of the final two seasons. He’s too passive on the plate; although he by no means chases, he will get himself into unhealthy counts due to a low swing charge over the center of the zone, and he has sufficient swing-and-miss that he finally ends up with a pedestrian strikeout charge regardless of hardly ever swinging at unhealthy pitches.

For me, the overall package deal works out to a borderline All-Star with a ton of crew management remaining. For a number of the folks I talked to, each internally and on the crew aspect, he’s extra of a mean participant (with damage threat as well). He’s acquired promise, little doubt, however I heard loads of suggestions that the glass was half empty.

Me? I’m a glass half full man, no less than in the case of Nootbaar. I like betting on gamers with Nootbaar’s talent set and drive to enhance, and even in a down 12 months, he’s on tempo for a 3.5-WAR season. Looks as if a precious commerce chip to me.

Steer doesn’t have a defensive house. He has bounced round between first, third, and left this 12 months, and he’s most likely barely under common in any respect three. As awkward as he appears within the subject, although, he’s a pure on the plate. He combines above-average energy with a wonderful sense of the strike zone; I see years of double-digit stroll charges in his future, and he doesn’t strike out very a lot, which makes his offensive flooring very excessive certainly.

In the long term, Steer’s improvement would possibly finest be served by discovering him an on a regular basis spot, however his versatility has already paid off for the Reds as they’ve shuffled by means of lineups amid promotions and accidents. That may be a bonus for any crew seeking to commerce for him, too; it’s loads simpler to assemble a lineup when one in all your prime hitters isn’t 1B/DH solely, even when they aren’t a defensive whiz.

If you happen to’re on the lookout for a comparability from latest baseball, consider Kris Bryant on the Cubs with the amount turned down a bit. I don’t suppose Steer will common a 140 wRC+, and I don’t suppose he’ll be above common at any defensive place, however that model of Bryant was so good that even 80% of him could be a perennial All-Star candidate. That’s the vibe I get from Steer.

Does your crew want a dependable starter? After all it does. That is baseball we’re speaking about; each crew wants extra pitching on a regular basis. Ryan guarantees to ship simply that – frequent and dependable pitching – at a cut price charge for years to come back. His huge league monitor report is now lengthy sufficient that I’m prepared to consider his fastball-first method will work; it’s a adequate pitch, and his new splitter enhances it effectively sufficient, that he doesn’t want to vary something to be sustainably stable.

The large threat with buying and selling for a pitcher is that they could get harm. One season of an ace sounds loads worse than two and a half seasons, however a critical damage might hold them on the shelf for about that lengthy. As a commerce chip, Ryan is comparatively resistant to that threat, as a result of he’ll be round for a very long time. He isn’t attributable to hit free company till after the 2027 season, which implies a misplaced 12 months gained’t torpedo his total time with a crew.

What offers Ryan the sting over the crop of rookie starters on the record of honorable mentions? It’s the understanding, roughly. Pitchers all the time have some chance of damage, however in addition they have a chance of taking a leap ahead into stardom. Ryan marries that potential leap with a excessive flooring; the mix of that and the period of time you would have him in your crew makes him extra precious than you would possibly suppose.

I’m a sucker for excellent up-the-middle defenders. Fortunately for Mullins, so are the overwhelming majority of massive league GMs. Mullins is sturdy and he’s a 70 defender in middle subject. Even when he couldn’t hit in any respect, he’d be a surefire starter for many groups in baseball primarily based on these two components alone. That makes for a lofty flooring; it’s laborious to think about a world the place a crew buying and selling for Mullins does worse than a rock-solid on a regular basis participant.

Mullins has been a lot better than that over the previous three years, and I wouldn’t wager on it altering anytime quickly. He will get on base and hits a ton of doubles, making him a great top-of-the-order bat. He’s underneath contract for 2 extra years, which is about the one draw back price mentioning. That’s not even a transparent draw back, although; at that time, Mullins shall be getting into his age-31 season, an age when defensive worth typically declines.

The worth proposition right here is de facto clear: Commerce for an amazing defender who will possible hit effectively, for a number of key years, beginning proper now. After that, wipe your palms clear and transfer on. I thought of shifting Mullins up the record much more regardless of the restricted service time, and on the finish of the day, solely 4 hitters in Mullins’s future free company class (the 2025-26 offseason) positioned forward of him on the record. You may not consider him as a star, however this degree of protection coupled with above-average hitting is a tremendously precious mixture.

Whoa there, maintain up Cardinals followers — don’t go getting out the pitchforks after that ZiPS projection. ZiPS isn’t in love with Walker, however the numbers above are a results of the system projecting him as a completely abysmal defender for years to come back. Change him to DH and his projection would enhance by an combination six wins. It’s inconceivable that Walker would really be that unhealthy defensively; he’ll both enhance, or he’ll transfer to first base or DH.

His defensive points are an actual destructive, however his offensive profile continues to be stuffed with upside. We’re speaking a couple of potential ultra-premium energy bat, the sort of game-changing hitter who doesn’t develop on timber. Even in a reasonably lackluster rookie season – manner, manner too many grounders have put a lid on his batting line – his outrageous energy stands out. He’s completely crushing the ball when he makes contact and hasn’t confirmed simply exploitable regardless of his Stretch Armstrong body. We’re speaking a couple of premier energy hitter for years to come back, one with Giancarlo Stanton upside.

That upside isn’t assured, which is why Walker doesn’t place larger on the record. If he finally ends up as merely hitter as an alternative of an amazing one, his worth will take an enormous hit due to the sheer mass of stable hitters with out defensive properties. That’s the chance. The reward is pretty apparent, although: You would possibly find yourself with the following incarnation of Aaron Judge (minus the power to moonlight in middle). Lots of groups would take that gamble.

If you would like Elly De La Cruz however can’t have him, what concerning the closest doable factor? Cruz has comparable upside as an 80-power/80-speed shortstop, solely with extra purple flags thrown in. His strikeout charge was sufficient to carry him again from greatness in 2022, whereas a brutal leg fracture early this season has restricted him to simply 9 video games to date. He’s solely racked up 410 huge league plate appearances, which implies we nonetheless have loads to study whether or not somebody along with his colossal body could make sufficient contact and keep wholesome sufficient to appreciate his sky-high potential.

Even with these dangers, I believe plenty of groups could be calling if the Pirates made Cruz accessible. The upside has all the time been mammoth, however it’s much more obvious now that De La Cruz is right here to supply a proof of idea. This talent set can work, and it could possibly work extremely effectively. I’m not saying that it wasn’t doable earlier than, however now it’s not even up for debate.

In a 12 months, Cruz will both be a way more precious or a lot much less precious commerce chip. Sooner or later, potential wants to show into manufacturing, or the chances of issues figuring out decline precipitously. That makes Cruz’s place on the record sort of foolish – the Pirates aren’t going to commerce him anytime quickly, which makes this purely theoretical. This entire record is an train in principle, although, and I believe that this valuation correctly weighs the long run paths Cruz would possibly take.

I misplaced depend of the quantity of people that identified Greene’s fastball form throughout my cross-checking. For a man who lives round 100 mph on the radar gun, his heater is exceedingly hittable. The full package deal works out, although, as a result of his slider is sensational. He’ll possible all the time stroll a number of too many batters, however so long as he has that nasty breaking ball, I believe he’ll pile up sufficient strikeouts to make the entire thing work.

I believe Greene is likely one of the gamers with the best disconnect between the baseball business consensus and what most people thinks. Six inexpensive years of a 23-year-old pitcher with this sort of stuff? It seems like a bonanza. In the meantime, a lot of folks I talked to questioned whether or not he belonged on this record in any respect. That’s how severely expertise evaluators are taking Greene’s perceived fastball deficiency.

I’m nearer to the folks than the elites on this one. I get it: Greene isn’t a blow-’em-away-high pitcher, and he would possibly by no means grow to be one. However I like how effectively he’s tailored to life on the main league degree, utilizing his fastball as a complementary software quite than sticking with it whereas it acquired bludgeoned. Greene is younger sufficient that the cement isn’t but dry on his recreation; it’s extra vital that he has the instruments to enhance than that he’s a completed product now. The one motive I didn’t push him larger on the record is a hip damage that seems like it’s going to maintain him out by means of August.