AL East 2023 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

Most specialists consider that the 2023 race within the American League East — whose members brag of being the hardest division in baseball — can be extraordinarily tight.

My prediction system agrees. It offers a slight nod to the Toronto Blue Jays, with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees proper on their heels.

I developed a pc program that in contrast every crew’s file through the previous three seasons (2020-2022) in opposition to the corresponding marks for 1,258 golf equipment that performed through the period of free company, which started in 1976.

The forecast for every present crew was decided by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 golf equipment from the previous that have been most just like the present-day squad. You’ll find a full rationalization within the newly revealed Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.

My system centered on the following efficiency of every CM, an evaluation that resulted in a small benefit for the Blue Jays within the AL East. Twenty-three of Toronto’s 50 closest matches certified for the playoffs within the subsequent season.

That was the very best determine for any present member of the division, squeaking previous the Rays and Yankees, who had 21 qualifying CMs apiece. (A tiebreaker gave second place to Tampa Bay, whose 50 closest matches received 11 league championships, in comparison with 5 for New York.)

Right here’s the projected order for the AL East in 2023, based mostly on my studying of historical past:

• 1. Blue Jays

• 2. Rays

• 3. Yankees

• 4. Purple Sox

• 5. Orioles

You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups under. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2022 file, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if relevant) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative outcomes (within the subsequent season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based mostly on my 2020-2022 comparisons), adopted by a listing of the 5 absolute best CMs with their subsequent data.

A brand new installment will arrive in your e-mail every Tuesday and Friday morning

• 2022 file: 92-70 (.568, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 23 of fifty

• CM #1: Pirates (2012-2014); 2015 file: 98-64 (.605, P)

• CM #2: Pirates (1974-1976); 1977 file: 96-66 (.593)

• CM #3: Yankees (1982-1984); 1985 file: 97-64 (.602)

• CM #4: Reds (2011-2013); 2014 file: 76-86 (.469)

• CM #5: Padres (2005-2007); 2008 file: 63-99 (.389)

• 2022 file: 86-76 (.531, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 11 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty

• CM #1: Orioles (1979-1981); 1982 file: 94-68 (.580)

• CM #2: Diamondbacks (2001-2003); 2004 file: 51-111 (.315)

• CM #3: Nationals (2016-2018); 2019 file: 93-69 (.574, WLP)

• CM #4: Indians (1996-1998); 1999 file: 97-65 (.599, P)

• CM #5: Yankees (1985-1987); 1988 file: 85-76 (.528)

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• 2022 file: 99-63 (.611, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty

• CM #1: Brewers (1980-1982); 1983 file: 87-75 (.537)

• CM #2: Royals (1978-1980); 1981 file: 50-53 (.485, P)

• CM #3: Astros (2003-2005); 2006 file: 82-80 (.506)

• CM #4: Yankees (1983-1985); 1986 file: 90-72 (.556)

• CM #5: Giants (1998-2000); 2001 file: 90-72 (.556)

• 2022 file: 78-84 (.481)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 13 of fifty

• CM #1: Cardinals (1995-1997); 1998 file: 83-79 (.512)

• CM #2: White Sox (2007-2009); 2010 file: 88-74 (.543)

• CM #3: Mariners (2015-2017); 2018 file: 89-73 (.549)

• CM #4: Tigers (1992-1994); 1995 file: 60-84 (.417)

• CM #5: Cardinals (1978-1980); 1981 file: 59-43 (.578)

• 2022 file: 83-79 (.512)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

• CM #1: Mariners (2007-2009); 2010 file: 61-101 (.377)

• CM #2: Indians (1984-1986); 1987 file: 61-101 (.377)

• CM #3: Twins (2015-2017); 2018 file: 78-84 (.481)

• CM #4: Diamondbacks (2013-2015); 2016 file: 69-93 (.426)

• CM #5: Athletics (1978-1980); 1981 file: 64-45 (.587, P)

An entire rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to come back

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