AL West 2023 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

It’s a easy matter to foretell the champion of the American League’s Western Division. You actually can’t go flawed by putting in Houston as the favourite.

The Astros have dominated the AL West since 2017 — taking 5 of the previous six divisional crowns — a interval they bookended with World Collection titles in 2017 and 2022.

The only exception was the truncated Covid season of 2020, when Houston squeaked into the expanded playoffs with an atypical sub-.500 document (29-31). However the Astros salvaged their pleasure by advancing all the best way to the AL Championship Collection, which they misplaced to the Tampa Bay Rays in seven video games.

So it’s Houston once more in 2023, proper?

Proper.

My forecasting system matched the 2020-2022 efficiency of every AL West membership in opposition to the three-year information for 1,258 groups all through the free-agent period, which started in 1976. It then evaluated the following information of the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present membership. (Click on right here to study extra.)

Thirty-one of Houston’s 50 CMs went to the playoffs of their subsequent seasons, thereby stamping the Astros as the category of the AL West in 2023. The runner-up Seattle Mariners had 14 CMs qualify for the postseason.

Historical past means that the opposite three groups within the division will end effectively out of the operating. Solely eight of the 50 closest matches for the Los Angeles Angels have been playoff-bound, as have been seven for the Texas Rangers and three for the Oakland Athletics.

Right here, consequently, are the projected 2023 standings for the AL West:

• 1. Astros

• 2. Mariners

• 3. Angels

• 4. Rangers

• 5. Athletics

You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups beneath. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2022 document, accompanied by postseason abbreviations (if relevant) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Then come the cumulative outcomes (within the subsequent season) for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (primarily based on my 2020-2022 comparisons), adopted by a listing of the 5 perfect CMs with their subsequent information.

If you wish to know extra this forecast, you’ll discover particulars within the newly revealed Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook. Different hyperlinks will take you to my earlier forecasts for the AL East and AL Central.

A brand new installment will arrive in your e mail every Tuesday and Friday morning

• 2022 document: 106-56 (.654, WLP)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 31 of fifty

• CM #1: Indians (1993-1995); 1996 document: 99-62 (.615, P)

• CM #2: Athletics (1987-1989); 1990 document: 103-59 (.636, LP)

• CM #3: Dodgers (1976-1978); 1979 document: 79-83 (.488)

• CM #4: Indians (2015-2017); 2018 document: 91-71 (.562, P)

• CM #5: Mariners (1999-2001); 2002 document: 93-69 (.574)

• 2022 document: 90-72 (.556, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 14 of fifty

• CM #1: Rays (2016-2018); 2019 document: 96-66 (.593, P)

• CM #2: Royals (1992-1994); 1995 document: 70-74 (.486)

• CM #3: Mets (1974-1976); 1977 document: 64-98 (.395)

• CM #4: Cardinals (1990-1992); 1993 document: 87-75 (.537)

• CM #5: Blue Jays (2004-2006); 2007 document: 83-79 (.512)

Learn in regards to the Corridor of Fame’s checkered historical past (and unsure future)

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• 2022 document: 73-89 (.451)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• CM #1: Athletics (1983-1985); 1986 document: 76-86 (.469)

• CM #2: Indians (1988-1990); 1991 document: 57-105 (.352)

• CM #3: Padres (1999-2001); 2002 document: 66-96 (.407)

• CM #4: Giants (1975-1977); 1978 document: 89-73 (.549)

• CM #5: Athletics (1984-1986); 1987 document: 81-81 (.500)

• 2022 document: 68-94 (.420)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty

• CM #1: Phillies (1988-1990); 1991 document: 78-84 (.481)

• CM #2: Phillies (1996-1998); 1999 document: 77-85 (.475)

• CM #3: Royals (2009-2011); 2012 document: 72-90 (.444)

• CM #4: Nationals (2008-2010); 2011 document: 80-81 (.497)

• CM #5: Cubs (1980-1982); 1983 document: 71-91 (.438)

• 2022 document: 60-102 (.370)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

• CM #1: Rangers (2012-2014); 2015 document: 88-74 (.543, P)

• CM #2: Cubs (2004-2006); 2007 document: 85-77 (.525, P)

• CM #3: Reds (1980-1982); 1983 document: 74-88 (.457)

• CM #4: Reds (1999-2001); 2002 document: 78-84 (.481)

• CM #5: Twins (2009-2011); 2012 document: 66-96 (.407)

A whole rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return

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