An Evaluation of a Three True Consequence Hitter

Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies; CC by License 2.0

The wave of three true final result hitters and the general model of baseball that comes with it has been astounding. There have been lots of people who’ve been dogging this type of baseball and questioning if it even works and whether it is price doing. It is very important perceive what 3 true outcomes are and if a hitter using this technique can efficiently do it and the way they will efficiently do it.

What are the three True Outcomes?

The three true outcomes are house runs, strikeouts, and walks and a 3 true final result hitter is one who primarily does these three issues. These hitters try to hit the ball out each probability they will get and this results in extra strikeouts however they’re additionally taking extra walks as effectively. There’s lots of criticism round this technique for hitters as it’s referred to as unhealthy baseball. It’s referred to as unhealthy as a result of it’s sometimes actually powerful to observe these guys play as a result of lots of unhealthy strikeouts and never lots of balls in play. Any Yankee fan can attest to this as they needed to watch Gallo battle badly whereas using the three true final result technique. On this new period of baseball, we’ve got been seeing a serious improve in the sort of technique whereas hitting.

The graph above reveals the proportion of plate appearances ending in an HR, Ok, or strikeout per yr throughout your entire league. That is referred to as 3 true final result proportion and it has risen fairly constantly over the previous 40 years. What has led to this improve? This improve has come from a change in philosophy throughout the sport of baseball as an entire and within the improve of the sabermetrics as effectively. Dwelling runs are at an all-time excessive which has led to extra gamers going all out to hit house runs which has led to a serious improve in strikeouts as effectively. The large disagreement with this philosophy is whether it is working or not. The very fact of the matter is that it relies on the hitter on if that is working or not. Some hitters have the uncooked energy to only concentrate on hitting house runs however different gamers haven’t any enterprise doing this technique. There are many hitters who make use of this all-or-nothing mentality with various levels of success. Nonetheless, the rationale there are such a lot of extra of those hitters in in the present day’s sport going for this technique is as a result of they’re allowed to. Usually these 3 true final result guys have low BA, excessive SLUG, and excessive Ok numbers. Up to now guys with most of these numbers weren’t given lots of alternative due to how a lot BA was valued, however now we’re seeing increasingly hitters who’re promoting all out for HRs and walks on the expense of strikeouts. There’s a good stability for all this and that is what it seems to be like on a graph.

This graph reveals how a lot a participant should stroll and hit HRs to fight the Ok%. This can be a very tough estimate and in no way excellent however for each 1% of Ok% the participant should have a .598% BB%+HR%. So if a participant strikes out 20% of the time they should have a HR+BB% of 11.97%. These numbers come from only a tough estimate of what a participant needs to be so as to be environment friendly with the Ok% they’ve. A participant who’s above the road is strolling and hitting sufficient house runs to fight the strikeout fee they’ve. A participant beneath the road is placing out an excessive amount of in comparison with the walks and residential runs. The large knock on these 3 true final result guys is that they strike out an excessive amount of to be efficient gamers. This graph goals to indicate a manner if a participant is placing out an excessive amount of or not in comparison with the walks and residential runs. If a participant is placing out lots they higher be strolling and hitting lots of house runs. Now that it has been established what it takes for 3 true final result gamers to be efficient; it’s time to have a look at examples of three true final result hitters all through historical past and see in the event that they had been efficient.

3 True Consequence Examples

Earlier than taking a look at examples it is very important set up a baseline. For a hitter to be thought-about a real final result hitter they should have a real final result% of above 42.5%.

Rob Deer (1984-1996)

Rob Deer was one of many first gamers to ever be a legit 3 true final result man as he posted profession totals of 31.2% Ok%, 12.7% BB%, and 5.1% HR%. This lands him at 49% of his profession PA ending in a Ok, BB, or HR. This is without doubt one of the largest totals in MLB historical past. Nonetheless, for his profession, he was barely beneath the required line of effectivity on the graph above. For his profession, he jumped forwards and backwards over the effectivity line and he helped pave the way in which for the way forward for three true final result hitters. Deer by no means made an all-star staff or gained any gold gloves however his influence for the long run was essential. In a time when it was nerve-racking to place the ball in play each time; Deer was capable of pave a stable profession path out of being a three-true final result hitter.

Jim Thome (1991-2012)

Thome is well the most important identify on this record as he was a slam dunk HOF with over 600 profession HRs. Nonetheless, like it or hate; he was a 3 true final result man. For his profession, he had a 24.7% Ok%, 16.9% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This lands him effectively above the effectivity line for his profession and places him at 47.5% for his profession 3 true final result%. Thome was probably the greatest hitters of the 2000s whereas nonetheless placing out at charges far above league common for his time. He’s the proper instance of a man who knew what sort of hitter he needed to be so as to achieve success. He probably wouldn’t have been the identical hitter if he tried to place the ball in play each time. Thome confirmed what might occur when a man with HOF-type energy offered all out for his energy.

Mark Reynolds (2007-2019)

Reynolds was a really stable participant for 12 years whereas taking part in for 8 groups in his profession. He made his dwelling on having lots of energy whereas placing out lots. His profession totals seemed like: 30.9% Ok%, 11.3% BB%, and 4.8% HR%. This lands him with a profession 47% profession 3 true final result%. This lands him beneath the effectivity line and his largest subject was merely not sufficient walks and too many Ok’s. He had the elite energy however he merely couldn’t regulate his different numbers sufficient. Regardless of not being a profitable 3 true final result man he was nonetheless a barely above league common hitter for his profession and was capable of put collectively a stable profession utilizing this technique.

Kyle Schwarber (2015-Current)

Schwarber is without doubt one of the largest three true final result guys round in the present day and he has been doing it his complete profession. His 2023 yr has gone viral as he’s hitting simply .183 however nonetheless has a .759 OPS. For his profession, he has a 28.4% Ok%, 13.6% BB%, and 6.1% HR%. This lands him at an insane 48.1% for his profession whole and this lands him above the effectivity line for his profession. His 2023 season has him at 29.3% Ok%, 16.8% BB%, and 5.9% HR%. This has him at an absurd 52% of his PA ending in one of many three outcomes and has him effectively above the effectivity line. Regardless of him hitting simply .183 he has been getting on base a good quantity together with his walks and maintaining his strikeouts beneath that 30% mark. General, Schwarber has been capable of carve out a really spectacular profession utilizing this technique and he has been a really profitable hitter this yr as effectively.

Joey Gallo (2015- Current)

Gallo is no doubt essentially the most polarizing 3 true final result hitter within the MLB in the present day. He has an absurd 37.8% profession Ok% and likewise a 14.8% BB% and 6.5% HR%. He has a wild 59.1% profession 3 true final result%. This leads him to be beneath the effectivity line and the principle purpose for that is the Ok% that’s manner too excessive to be environment friendly. His 2023 season has been ever decrease as he has 43% Ok% whereas his BB% and HR% are just like his common. Gallo has a Ok% that’s only a plain and easy manner too excessive to be an environment friendly hitter even in in the present day’s sport. He has nonetheless been capable of put collectively two all-star seasons although and total has had a stable MLB profession.

Three true final result hitters are more and more widespread in in the present day’s sport and they’re right here to remain, like it or hate it. The complexity round them on in the event that they work or not is a really tough query to ask. Nonetheless, the actual fact of the matter is that when it’s executed proper and if a hitter is ready to correctly considerably handle their strikeouts and stroll lots, then they will simply turn out to be and productive three true final result hitter. It is very important know that not each hitter can obtain this and solely a choose few hitters with elite energy and an ideal eye can put up the right sort of effectivity numbers to be a legit 3 true final result hitter. These guys won’t be the very best guys to observe however they get the job executed when executed appropriately.