Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/21/23

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is it an oversimplification to say the addition of the cutter saved Julio Urias’ season?

Ben Clemens: I hadn’t appeared into this very a lot, to be sincere, and I’m doing so now

Ben Clemens: Fairly fascinating

Ben Clemens: Looks as if an article ready to occur, but it surely’s fairly intersting how a lot better he’s gotten since including this pitch

Ben Clemens: I assume the counterpoint is that he added it early within the 12 months

Ben Clemens: and he hasn’t actually popped till not too long ago

Jadon: Has Corey Seager’s 2023 success been sufficient to solidify him because the primary shortstop in baseball?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, solidify is hard. However yeah, if I’m choosing a man for simply this 12 months, I’d take Seager narrowly over Lindor

Ben Clemens: Lindor is quietly having an unbelievable season

Tacoby Bellsbury: In case you needed to get a statue of a participant who disenchanted and flamed out to maintain in your desk, which bust of a bust would you go along with and why?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, so my one hit marvel bust can be Bo Hart

Ben Clemens: b/c that 2003 season was wonderful

Ben Clemens: However when it comes to a disappointment, I feel I’d go along with Alex Reyes. He was my favourite prospect for SO a few years

Traditionally Mid: Andrew Benintendi (previous to this 12 months) all the time struck me as essentially the most common participant in baseball. His 2019 season needs to be up there as most middling season ever

Ben Clemens: He’s reply as properly

Corey Seager: I AM A GOD!!!

Paul Skenes: Over hyped or the following Stephen Strasburg/Gerrit Cole??

Ben Clemens: Mmmm, I’m on the overhyped facet of this debate as a result of these guys have been simply slam dunk kind prospects

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s good, I’d not have taken him with the primary choose within the draft

Man Who Asks The A number of Selection Query: Which Jackson is most definitely to be on the quilt of MLB The Present 2027?

a) Merrill
b) Chourio
c) Holliday
d) One other Jackson (please specify)

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go along with Holliday, because the most definitely to be a star on crew

John Angelos is a Man Baby: Curious your tackle John Angelos’ revelatory feedback within the New York Occasions in the present day. It will probably’t probably be true that the crew can not afford to increase younger gamers, proper? Looks as if he’s utilizing the “I can’t afford to increase my younger stars” fib as leverage to attempt to get extra state funding so he can construct a Braves-esque growth surrounding the stadium – and in flip, after all, earn more money. Fairly a distinction from the shockingly good on-field product seemingly starting a 4-6+ 12 months stretch the place they need to be constant title contenders…

Ben Clemens: I can’t say a lot past the truth that John Angelos likes to place his foot in his mouth, and ‘we will’t afford to increase younger gamers’ is totally in step with the way in which he’s been working this crew since assuming operational management

Ben Clemens: Like, he doesn’t like spending cash on the crew, we get it

Visitor: How a lot ought to we care about fielding when evaluating pitching prospects?  What about in evaluating MLB pitchers?

Ben Clemens: Prospects, I feel mainly zero

Ben Clemens: I need my pitchers working full-time on getting higher at pitching

Ben Clemens: Within the majors, I feel it’s barely underrated, notably for groundball heavy pitchers

Visitor: Seems to be like Mets have about $130m coming off the books subsequent 12 months (together with the $20m they’re nonetheless paying Robbie Cano!).  What’s a sensible guess as to how a lot of that Cohen reinvests within the 2024 crew?

Ben Clemens: Like….. 50-110 million?

Ben Clemens: This free agent class will not be notably appetizing exterior of Ohtani

Ben Clemens: However clearly the Mets are gonna roll out a bag for him

Jeremy: If the Phillies make the playoffs, ought to Aaron Nola get a begin?

Ben Clemens: I imply, yeah

Ben Clemens: I perceive that he’s been kinda homer-prone this 12 months and has a blah ERA, however I don’t assume there’s any argument that he’s exterior their prime 3 pitchers

Jesse Pinkman: How does AJ Preller nonetheless  have the highest job in San Diego? He can’t hold getting away with it, proper?

Ben Clemens: I imply, this window that ends after 2024 (and possibly after this 12 months) is what he has

Ben Clemens: if there’s no WS in that time-frame, I can’t see them conserving him

Jon Daniels: Will Rangers fan hate me eternally or will they warmup again as much as me over time?

Ben Clemens: Heat again up over time virtually actually

Ben Clemens: This 12 months’s crew is fairly closely constructed by you

Wrights Again: One other, decidedly fan centric query,Ben:  when ought to I be shopping for season tickets for the Mets?   Was 2022 a mirage?  Statistically it doesnIs their underperformance (on all counts) a failure of teaching or of gamers who have been ideally suited to the sport earlier than the rule adjustments?

Ben Clemens: I had a 20-game season ticket package deal with the Mets all through the dangerous instances

Ben Clemens: 2016-2018 (2016 was time however the others weren’t)

Ben Clemens: I’d say that you shouldn’t get them primarily based on whether or not you assume the crew goes to win a world collection

Ben Clemens: you must get them primarily based on whether or not you need to have enjoyable going to baseball video games

Ben Clemens: I feel that failure of gamers ideally suited to the previous sport is unlikely as a solution, personally

Princess Leia: Assist us Obi-wan Clemon-obi! You’re our solely hope!

Ben Clemens: on loop in my head for an hour now

Justin: Pete Alonso has a 135 wrc+ whereas solely having a .199 babip. I feel that is unbelievable, and he’s not getting sufficient credit score for the way good he’s been this 12 months dangerous luck apart.

Ben Clemens: He’s had a extremely good season someway

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Lots of people (e.g., Leo Morgenstern) foresaw Lance Lynn regressing positively due to his unsustainably dangerous HR/FB price. Turning from a present Dodger to a former Dodger prospect, Dean Kremer has regressed negatively in that his HR/FB has greater than doubled (7.3% to fifteen.2%), whereas he’s hanging out extra guys and doing completely effective on BABIP. By RV alone, his cutter has gone from good to dangerous and his sinker has gone from dangerous to good, however his secondaries are in any other case the identical. I do know it’s a variety of blue on his Statcast web page, however what offers?

Ben Clemens: These fly ball pitchers are all the time going to be a bit vulnerable to homer blowups imo, notably in the event that they don’t have a wonderful contact administration plan

Ben Clemens: like, sinker/sweeper to same-handed batters with a cutter and one thing else to take care of reverse handed guys kinda works

Ben Clemens: however for those who’re placing the ball within the air, the hitters provide the facility, so that you’re gonna be liable to blowups

SvenClemens: Are we on the level we’re actually beginning to see the consequences of the Astros lack of draft picks? Or has it been a difficulty already?  The again half of their lineup is struggling and I ponder how a lot it’s as a result of it’s tougher for them to seek out low cost, in home expertise proper now.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, just a little bit. After all, they’re additionally delivery out expertise to get gamers, which provides up

Ben Clemens: however I keep in mind when these penalties have been levied, folks equated them to financial as a result of the Astros would want to spend additional to switch these holes

Ben Clemens: and eh, they haven’t actually? and so yeah, that hurts

Ethan: Very a lot loved your WPA article from final week. I used to be curious for those who assume that WPA/LI or RE24/boLI align with the MVP voting standards. Personally I feel they hit the candy spot on the context dependent-context impartial spectrum however I’d have an interest to listen to your ideas.

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually, due to the bizarre “precise worth” phrasing

Ben Clemens: each of these modify the worth, on function, they usually’re good stats due to that

Ben: I’m certain that I’m lacking one thing right here, however how can 7 AL groups be 60% or higher to make the playoffs when there are solely 6 spots?

Ben Clemens: Effectively, for those who had three groups for 2 spots, and every was 2/3 prone to make it, you’d have 6/3 or 2 groups make it ultimately

Ben Clemens: so, kinda that

Ben Clemens: that’s kinda what’s occurring right here, tbh

Ben Clemens: so the Rangers and Astros are every 80% or so, that’s 1.6 groups

Ben Clemens: the Jays and Mariners are every name it 60%, 1.2 groups, so 2.8 groups

Ben Clemens: then 3 groups are roughly 100%, 5.8 groups

Ben Clemens: and eh, scraps make up the following

Appa Yip Yip: On a scale of 1 to 10 how foolish is it that baseball, within the 12 months 2023, remains to be rubbing balls up with the magical mud from the key river?

Ben Clemens: Actually, it’s a ten

C’mon Son!: Why doesn’t Adolis Garcia get extra recognition?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s as a result of he broke out when the Rangers weren’t good, after which the crew supplemented itself with a bunch of stars everybody is aware of, who at the moment are getting the credit score for enchancment

Ben Clemens: however he’s been superior this 12 months

Ben Clemens: And actually, he’s been fairly good since 2021

Eh?: Why did we have to add the “Sweeper” pitch this 12 months? Isn’t it only a sure form of slider? If we’re including a pitch for that, shouldn’t we additionally add one for 12-6 curveball vs regular curveball? Or an? overhand vs 3/4 vs sidearm vs submarine launch level fastball?

Ben Clemens: I’m kinda with you, to be sincere, however I feel it comes right down to this

Ben Clemens: sufficient pitchers have been throwing a pointy slider and a sweeping slider that the aggregates couldn’t deal with them

Ben Clemens: a variety of programs simply known as the sharp one a cutter, that’s what I’d have executed

Ben Clemens: However I’ve been researching pitchers as a result of their sliders appeared bizarre, solely to seek out that it was two sliders

Ben Clemens: And it’s helpful to have these break up out, for my part

Ben Clemens: even when the title is a bit tacky

Liam: My early guess for the (hopefully) upcoming mid pitcher article: braxton garrett

Ben Clemens: That article will come up as quickly as I must fill an empty day, haha

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Re: Urias cutter, are you able to describe the method of pitchers including a pitch? Typically it looks as if guys add a sinker or sweeper on the drop of a hat, however I seldom hear about somebody including a changeup or curveball.

Ben Clemens: So, right here’s my psychological hierarchy, with the caveat that I’m not in growth or something

Ben Clemens: The simplest pitches so as to add, it appears, are fastballs

Ben Clemens: so including a 4-seamer or sinker for those who predominantly throw the opposite one is essentially a matter of seam orientation

Ben Clemens: after which some intent as properly

Ben Clemens: however these are fairly simple issues to show. Identical grip, similar end

Ben Clemens: the cutter that they’re educating quite a bit today is analogous; appears to have a really related grip, simply completely different end

Ben Clemens: So with these, you may take a factor the participant has executed quite a bit over a few years, not change a lot, and let him work with it

Ben Clemens: I get the sense that sweepers are related in that it’s a comparatively easy grip/intent modification

Ben Clemens: changeups are HEAVILY primarily based on really feel and arm pace and a variety of stuff that isn’t “oh simply transfer the ball this fashion and do that along with your finger”

Ben Clemens: so these are tougher

Ben Clemens: I feel curves are related

Ranch Flowerbed: Aren’t the Mets nonetheless in a stable place to signal Ohtani regardless of their current sell-off?

Appa Yip Yip: Simply appeared up Corey Seager’s numbers after seeing him proclaim himself a god and thought, dang he might win MVP then instantly remembered Shohei Ohtani exists

Ben Clemens: Haha yeah, Ohtani is simply wild

JRod: Am I again to being a famous person?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I by no means thought you weren’t to be truthful

knuckle_49: What’s the excellent swing resolution?
I don’t assume Z-OSwing% is enough.

Ben Clemens: I wrote an article on this final 12 months, let me dig it up

Ben Clemens: I believed this was a reasonably great way of doing it

Ben Clemens: Principally have a look at how necessary it’s to swing vs. not swing in every zone, and modify for that

Ben Clemens: Additionally Alex Eisert expanded on that normal concept final week

Jadon: What are your normal ideas on Evan Carter. I’ve heard some folks criticizing his swing, what are your ideas on that?

Ben Clemens: I’m a Carter believer

Ben Clemens: I positively underrate swing considerations on the whole

Ben Clemens: however…. I don’t assume it’s that a lot of a priority!

EnglishMariner: Very long time listener, first time caller – J.P Crawford will get spoke about as a protection first SS who makes eye catching prime quality gamers, however his UZR is amongst the more serious within the league

Ben Clemens: yeah, these statistics are actually noisy on the whole however statcast has not appreciated his protection in any respect of late

Ben Clemens: additionally, don’t use UZR

Ben Clemens: it’s kinda deprecated at this level; I a lot desire OAA

Jake Marogersnik: Re: Spencer Torkelson’s current sizzling streak, is it simply an ordinary sizzling streak or an indication of issues to come back? Not a lot adjustments I can see in batted ball knowledge and he was underperforming his anticipated stats all season

Ben Clemens: My learn is that it’s only a sizzling streak

Ben Clemens: Such as you stated, it doesn’t seem like the method has modified all that a lot

Appa Yip Yip: I would love Bo Bichette to be a Blue Jay for all times. What contract makes that occur? 12/350?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I feel that may do it

Ben Clemens: seager-esque deal

EnglishMariner: Accidently submitted my query with out the query bit – basically is JP Crawford really a nasty fielder and the Mariners commentators are mendacity to me? UZR suggests he’s surprising, however the eye take a look at suggests he makes performs others wouldn’t be able to.

Ben Clemens: Ah yeah; I’d say that he’s a beneath common defender, maybe largely due to vary, however that he has dazzling hand-eye coordination

Ben Clemens: Ooh, seems like this will likely be enjoyable to dive into later

Did Chewbacca use TP?: What adjustments has Cody Bellinger made this 12 months to regain this success?  How what do you assume he’ll get within the open market? would you be shopping for?

Ben Clemens: I appreciated this text by Esteban Rivera

Ben Clemens: I…. don’t assume I’d be shopping for on Bellinger

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s gonna get the largest non-Ohtani FA deal for a hitter this 12 months

Ben Clemens: And I simply want a couple of 12 months’s proof, although this 12 months has been actually good

Ben Clemens: That’s form of all I’ve to say about it…. I get that he’s been higher however I simply can’t lock it in as totally modified but

Sporter’s 5 Horses: I used to be fairly bullish on the Nats heading into this season as a mid 70s wins type of crew (and boy did I face a variety of in all probability properly warranted mockery for my views), however now it appears my religion is being rewarded.

Ben Clemens: They’ve outperformed their underlying stuff a bit, however who cares? I feel the Nats have executed job of making an attempt out some new guys, getting one thing for his or her leases, giving younger gamers PT, there’s only a lot to love right here

Oaktown Blues: Trying on the A’s trades of the previous couple years, it strikes me that the worst outcomes got here in trades the place the participant traded was due some huge cash (by A’s requirements) the following 12 months (Olson, Chapman, Murphy, Bassitt, Manaea), versus the comparatively profitable Irvin and Montas trades. Do you assume it was an open secret that the A’s weren’t going to pay these gamers, resulting in a scarcity of leverage and underwhelming returns?

Ben Clemens: Sure, and I feel they didn’t perceive their leverage notably properly provided that

Ben Clemens: Like, sure, the A’s weren’t going to pay Sean Murphy however somebody was going to

Ben Clemens: I feel that impatience round taking part in groups off towards one another hurts them extra due to that identified market

Ben Clemens: however look, the A’s might have had a greater return for Murphy in the event that they didn’t contain the Brewers in that commerce

Ben Clemens: so it’s exhausting to say that was about leverage. There have been a number of groups wanting round for catchers

Ben Clemens: The Cardinals have been confirmed to have been

Ben Clemens: they usually splashed out for Contreras as a substitute

Eh?: Have you ever ever heard of individuals wanting into the right way to quantify deception in a pitcher’s supply? Clearly the straightforward method can be to level to career-long tendencies in stats vs anticipated stats, however I imply REALLY dig into it. Take a look at which deliveries, launch factors, and many others. yield the very best outcomes.

Ben Clemens: I’ve, and groups are doing this for SURE

Ben Clemens: It’s actually exhausting to dig into from the general public facet simply because we don’t have granular data

Bob: Umpires this weekend we’re horrible with the strike zone…will this pace up implementation of automated Kzone?

Ben Clemens: Angel Hernandez had the worst zone I’ve seen this 12 months over the weekend

Ben Clemens: hitters have been simply chuckling

Curious: Phrase is Nats are extending their GM and supervisor. Secure to say Rizzo is within the prime half of the league? Possibly prime 10?

Didace: The Nationals at the moment are an fascinating crew.

Ben Clemens: It’s Nats day

Ben Clemens: I feel that Rizzo is a extremely good dealer

Ben Clemens: And actually understands the macro image properly

Ben Clemens: He is aware of when he wants so as to add exterior expertise, is aware of when he wants to surrender, that form of stuff

Ben Clemens: I’ve not been impressed with the Nats’ inside growth, both of hitters or pitchers

Ben Clemens: so I feel there’s room for enchancment on the scouting finish

Ben Clemens: However he’s positively fairly sharp on the huge image stuff and that’s actually necessary, I feel a variety of GM’s mess that stuff up

J: Any concept if pitcher stuff metrics or pitch motion profiles account for when a pitcher has a number of variations on a pitch? Pondering of pitchers having a sweeping and extra conventional slider, or of Kyle Hendricks having a slicing and tailing changeup. Seems like these are probably wildly off in the event that they’re not explicitly accounted for, as a result of the 2 motion profiles will common out to horrible.

Ben Clemens: Yeah that’s what I used to be speaking about with separate labeling earlier

Ben Clemens: They only depend on whichever labeling system they use, I do know PitchingBot makes use of Statcast

v2micca: So, this previous week I consider, the movie Oppenheimer has the excellence of turning into essentially the most commercially profitable movie of all time with out ever spending a single week as number one on the field workplace.  In that vein, I suggest referring to corridor of fame greats like Mike Mussina who all the time gave the impression to be overshadowed by somebody in a given season as Oppenheimers.

Ben Clemens: Additionally, I cherished Oppenheimer

D: Will you broaden a bit in your ideas concerning the Brewers dealing Urias? To paraphrase, you wrote that it was a sensible transfer for them to economize (~$1 million) on a man who they might probably nontender and to amass a pitcher who was extraordinarily sizzling not too long ago. Urias’s current heroics apart, shouldn’t the Brewers have been prepared to shell out $1 million to certain up their 2b/3b scenario?

Ben Clemens: I imply…. I’d have been, however I don’t run the price range that the Brewers do

Ben Clemens: It appeared fairly clear to me that they weren’t contemplating him as a serious league choice this 12 months

Ben Clemens: You don’t choice a man making $5 million to the minors if you wish to use him as a depth piece

Ben Clemens: And he wasn’t even hitting properly in Triple-A

Ben Clemens: So if he’s going to be in your minors, they usually already most popular Monasterio et al over him, I don’t know what worth they have been getting out of conserving him round

John: What worth does Maldonado add to the Astros at this level? Simply veteran management? he nonetheless can’t hit and his defensive metrics are terrible this 12 months.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I really don’t get it

Ben Clemens: I’d have lower bait

Ben Clemens: They only love him

Visitor: If Mookie Betts have been transformed to a full-time shortstop, the place would he rank in your checklist of the very best?

Jadon: That is extra of a private query for you Ben. Do you will have a favourite baseball youtuber/content material creator?

Ben Clemens: I’ll be sincere, I don’t devour a variety of baseball content material

Ben Clemens: I do a variety of baseball stuff myself, you understand?

Ben Clemens: I watch hours of video games a day and likewise spend hours writing and serious about it, I’m form of maxed out on my baseball

Ben Clemens: that stated: Successfully Wild and Silly are two that I try

Didace: Swing selections needs to be break up into two classes –

Ben Clemens: Completely. I stripped out the 2 strike stuff in it, however splitting them out is sensible too

Sandwich: Is baseball essentially the most possession dependent sport in North America? It feels prefer it ought to because of the lack of wage cap and lengthy timelines between acquisition from non-professional ranks into the most important league, however on the similar time there are groups in Soccer/Hockey that appear to be caught in an almost infinite loop of sucking

Ben Clemens: I feel the truth that groups in wage cap sports activities are caught in perpetual tanking loops says quite a bit about how a lot possession and entrance workplace management matter

Ben Clemens: for those who can’t get that stuff collectively, the cash is simply not going to repair it

Vlad’s Dad: Possibly extra up Jay’s alley, however questioning what odds you’d placed on a HOF profession out of Pete Alonso?

Clearly bought a late begin however already wanting like he ought to put up an enormous HR complete and has some nice early seasons beneath his belt.

Ben Clemens: 65%? I feel that he’ll make it if he continues at this tempo for certain regardless of the late begin

Ed Luvah: Has Mitch Garver executed sufficient to warrant a 3-4 12 months deal? 3/30?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I’d not supply him that!

Ben Clemens: that doesn’t imply nobody else will

Ben Clemens: or like, I’m not even a crew

Ben Clemens: However certainly the shortage of sturdiness is worrisome

Dan: If the Orioles spend 100 million in free company are they going to be good for the following 5 years and thus get a brand new era of followers and make far excess of 100 million additional {dollars} over these followers lifetimes?

Ben Clemens: Mmmmmmm, it is a actually fascinating query and I don’t know the fitting reply however I feel it’s asking one thing actually necessary

Ben Clemens: Ought to the Orioles be rising payroll with the particular goal of supplementing their younger core?

Ben Clemens: the reply is clearly sure

Ben Clemens: Investments like which have multipliers, such as you stated

Ben Clemens: now could be the time to strike for those who’re the O’s, being good is new and sizzling, and you’ve got a variety of value management sooner or later

Farhandrew Zaidman: Are minor league promotions getting extra aggressive, or am I going loopy?

Ben Clemens: They most definiltey are

Ben Clemens: the Angels are making it just a little complicated simply because they’re throwing the whole lot on the wall, however even with out that, I feel groups are reacting higher than I anticipated to the incentives to name guys up

Ben Clemens: and notably, I feel the O’s expertise with Rutschman final 12 months raised some eyebrows

Ben Clemens: It actually stings to not get a primary spherical pick of that, to antagonize your participant (possibly not Adley, he simply appears imperturbable, however most gamers), and likewise to have the identical service time

Not shopping for?: You assume Belling reverts  to who he was a couple of years in the past?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know!

Ben Clemens: It’s a tricky query

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t pay as much as discover out although

Ben Clemens: Numerous methods to have a look at it

Trout: The place ought to the Angels go from right here? It’s not usually that I feel a crew ought to blow it up and do a full rebuild, but it surely looks as if that’s the place the Angels are. (White Sox too, however that’s one other story.) They do have loads of cash to spend. However what are they going to do, signal a bunch of fellows to do patchwork throughout the roster for the following two years?

Ben Clemens: i imply, whether or not they blow it up or not, it’s getting ugly

Ben Clemens: no farm, the present crew isn’t even that good

Tom: Given the adjustments within the standings, do you assume the Mariners want to undo the Sewald commerce?  Or has Canzone filling in for Kelenic and Rojas for Wong really made a bigger affect and helped drive the turnaround?

Ben Clemens: I really assume that they might not undo it

Ben Clemens: they only wanted hitters badly sufficient that it labored out

Ben Clemens: and as meg has usually identified, they’ve an actual talent for growing relievers

Phil: What’s or needs to be a more in-depth, these days? Pondering of the Purple Sox, for whom Chris Martin is fairly clearly the very best reliever, even when they’ve one other man who bears a hanging resemblance to somebody who used to dominate for the Dodgers. However would there be an considerable profit to swapping these roles, sufficient to beat no matter clubhouse impact comes from, I don’t know, disrespecting a veteran? Does it matter?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume there’s sufficient profit to offset any potential prices

Ben Clemens: Although, I’d wish to see the Purple Sox use Martin a biiiiiit extra in huge spots

Ben Clemens: however like, these two guys get crucial alternatives constantly

Ben Clemens: that’s the important thing for me

abhi: do you will have any suggestions on baseball books to learn and whatnot?

Ben Clemens: my favourite baseball e-book of all time is The Solely Rule is it Has to Work

Ben Clemens: Ball 4 can also be excellent

D: Thanks on your solutions on the Urias commerce. Quite a lot of your reply comes right down to how the Brewers seen him, which is ok for what it’s. But when we’re evaluating the commerce, I feel we have now to incorporate evaluating how they view him.

Ben Clemens: Ah yeah. I don’t agree with their analysis in any respect

Ben Clemens: however I feel that the commerce was constant, which is necessary

Ben Clemens: I feel that inside consistency is a minimum of as necessary as participant analysis

Ben Clemens: or like, adjusting for the way good you may be relative to the group at participant analysis

Phil: Can’t look ahead to robozone, not satisfied by those that are nostalgic for framing. Give me an elite athlete like Connor Wong (did you see the play on the popped-up bunt?) over someone who simply sits there and nuances the glove a bit.

Ben Clemens: I actually love the problem system

Ben Clemens: as a result of it’s the very best of all worlds

Air Horn: BWOW WAH WOW WOW OWWWWWW

Ben Clemens: glorious level

Farhandrew Zaidman: Matt Olson or Pete Alonso, the remainder of their careers?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Alonso however with out a lot conviction

ryan: Is there any participant that has ever pandered as properly to a metropolis as Bryce Harper does with Philly?

Ben Clemens: Philadelphians, earmuffs: I feel that Philly is among the cities that it’s best to pander to

Ben Clemens: simply due to their sturdy id

Ben Clemens: that’s not a nasty factor, to be clear

Ben Clemens: However Carlos Correa tried that stuff with Minneapolis and like, it simply doesn’t hit the identical

Trout: A sweeper can be a new phrase for a slurve.

Ben Clemens: I don’t 100% agree with this

Ben Clemens: it’s like some slurves?

Ben Clemens: however some slurves are closely two-plane

Appa Yip Yip: Wasn’t one of many justifications the Orioles used for his or her miniscule payrolls throughout the tank years that they have been saving cash to spend later? Lmao.

Ben Clemens: Ah, inside inconsistency!

Appa Yip Yip: Do the angels even have anybody of worth to commerce off in the event that they have been going to blow it up?

Adam: Questioning when you’ve got any perception into why the ATC RoS Projection for Eury Pérez went from dangerous to worse after his final wonderful begin. ATC has such repute for pitching, i’m a bit confused.

Ben Clemens: I don’t. ATC is an aggregator of different projections

Ben Clemens: So, I’d look to the projections it aggregates

Ben Clemens: however yeah, I disagree

Ben Clemens: Eury appears dominant

Ben Clemens: That begin goes to be one of many issues I appreciated this week, as a preview of types

Rick: Is getting constantly higher keep it up balls a talent? I see excessive EVs typically with distances that appear low and vice versa. Questioning if there’s extra to it than hitting circumstances

v2micca: I used to be studying not too long ago that the human eye is able to seeing between 30 to 60 frames per second.  Your mind then takes this knowledge and fills within the gaps between every body so it seems that the world is shifting in easy steady type to our eyes.  If they may discover a solution to positively measure it, do you assume the baseball gamers with actually good command of the strikezone can be these people whose eyes are capturing knowledge on the excessive 60 to 70 frames per second finish of the typical?

Ben Clemens: A few of these, some folks with extraordinarily good kinesthesia, some folks with actually fast psychological processing and sample recognition

Ben Clemens: it’s not JUST eyes, however that’s clearly an enormous half

ryan: I’d think about {that a} non-zero quantity of their pondering comes from watching what occurred with the Cardinals pitching employees when Yadi retired (although Maldonado hasn’t been round practically as lengthy and by no means graded out as properly)

Ben Clemens: Oh, that is about Maldy and I forgot to publish it earlier

Ben Clemens: I imply… that exhibits a misunderstanding of what occurred to the Cardinals (their pitching was dangerous as a result of that they had dangerous pitchers) and likewise little or no religion within the pitching employees and coaches

Ben Clemens: so if that’s what occurred, that’s a unfavorable in my eyes on their entrance workplace’s capacity to course of info

Liam: does skenes throw a pitch for the buccos this season?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so

Ben Clemens: I’d really feel in another way in the event that they have been nonetheless within the race in any respect

Ben Clemens: However I’d be anxious about workload sufficient that I’d say hm, he may get prettttty amped to pitch int he huge leagues, possibly we let him construct as much as it with a traditional offseason as a substitute

Ben Clemens: that stated, I’ll be shocked if he’s not of their huge league rotation subsequent Might

Cito: What’s up with Buxton, and what are the Twins going to do with him?  Is he washed?  Can’t appear to hit.  Received’t let him play the sphere

Ben Clemens: Man…. he kinda appears washed

Ben Clemens: I ponder if he ought to have simply missed this season to recuperate from no matter damage he has

Ben Clemens: as a result of what they’re getting will not be *higher* than that

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s clearly been method worse for his well being

Seamus: What’s your favourite social deduction sport?

Ben Clemens: any variation of mafia/werewolf

Ben Clemens: Amongst Us was a enjoyable distraction however I like ones that get performed 100% in particular person, personally

MLB: Riley Greene and Torkelson will mix to supply how a lot WAR subsequent 12 months?

Ben Clemens: 3.9 (3.7 Greene, 0.2 Tork, for the recent take)

Ben Clemens: however no, let’s name it 5, 3.7/1.3

Ben Clemens: Riley Greene was one in every of my dudes coming into this 12 months and whie he’s not gonna hold babiping like htis, possibly he’ll play some extra video games for as soon as

Jadon: Do you assume the Tigers made the fitting transfer going with Clark as a substitute of Langford? If that’s the case, why?

Ben Clemens: Eh, I’m not ok at that form of prospect analysis to provide you an inexpensive reply

Re: baseball books: The baseball subreddit used to do an annual winter e-book checklist that has a variety of nice picks, each retro/romantic and fashionable/nerdy.  I’ve discovered a variety of nice picks through the years, most not too long ago The Glory of Their Occasions.

Doug: Has the sport and gamers handed Bob Melvin by? Appeared like he used to get the whole lot out of his gamers. Now he can’t do something to assist flip the crew round. I perceive they made the NLCS final gesr

Ben Clemens: Wasn’t this like…. hailed as a genius managerial rent very not too long ago?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume he deserved as a lot credit score as he acquired for being nice, or as a lot blame as he’s getting for being dangerous

Ben Clemens: however yeah, that clubhouse does NOT look like it’s in place

Bmore Orioles: Bradish and Grayson have been lights out for two months. Our offense comes and goes, however may be fairly sturdy. Good D. Good bullpen, with assistance on the way in which. Are we WS contenders?

punter therefore: Taking a look at Baltimore’s starters, relievers and place gamers, only one of three (RP) is actually standout and even solidly above common by fWAR. Does this concern you in any respect when it comes to being an actual risk within the playoffs? I feel there’s quite a bit to be excited for this core, however possibly not anticipating a deep run this 12 months

Ben Clemens: That is enjoyable!

Ben Clemens: I consider Baltimore as a legit playoff risk, largely as a result of I don’t assume the AL has anybody clearly higher

Ben Clemens: for my cash, the Dodgers and Braves are the category of baseball by a large margin this 12 months

Ben Clemens: however the entire AL contenders have flaws

Tom: What occurred to all of the FA SS’s this 12 months?  It simply doesn’t make sense that they might all have down years instantly?

Ben Clemens: No concept but it surely actually is bizarre

Wrights Again: OMG, if  you name ’16-18 the ‘dangerous instances’ for the Mets, I recommend you root for the Yankees.   Too final result targeted!

Ben Clemens: haha properly 2017 was fairly dangerous; they went from being crew to shedding 92 video games they usually have been making an attempt SO exhausting to fill the stadium by the tip

Ben Clemens: I went to 2 ‘fan appreciation have a luxurious suite with different followers’ video games that 12 months haha

Jadon: Who do you assume is the very best  American born black participant within the league presently? Man sitting subsequent to me desires to know lol.

Ben Clemens: hmmm… properly my extraordinarily biased self desires to say Masyn Winn

Ben Clemens: he’s so enjoyable already

Ben Clemens: however clearly it’s Mookie

Ben Clemens: and like…. I don’t assume it’s notably near being shut

Appa Yip Yip: I forgot about Milwaukee inserting themselves into the Murphy commerce just like the dude on the social gathering who didn’t pay for something and left with a field of donuts and half a case of beer.

Ben Clemens: Great way of placing it

Visitor: Right here’s to hoping Trout made some changes and comes again because the 170 wRC+ hitter he’s all the time been tomorrow

Did Chewbacca use TP?: Yelich and Bellinger are having related 2019 revivals after some down years (the lows are clearly decrease for Cody)…who would you favor to have for the following 3 years?

Ben Clemens: Bellinger, for the protection

Appa Yip Yip: Have you ever performed Baldur’s Gate 3?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, and it’s wonderful

Ben Clemens: (we’re going to a pace spherical right here earlier than I am going make lunch, I ought to have talked about)

Mr Redlegs: In case you would have instructed me earlier than the season that the entire Reds prospects have been within the majors and considerably thriving and we’d be inside shouting distance of a playoff spot in late August I’d have been thrilled! Now I’m simply kinda bummed. Expectations are bizarre

Ben Clemens: yeah path dependency is lame

Ben Clemens: the Reds bought too sizzling!

abhi: what are your ideas on the giants rotation going ahead with kyle harrison?

Ben Clemens: I’m extraordinarily excited to observe his debut

Visitor: Nonetheless searching a playoff berth this 12 months, however clearly the Reds are properly forward of schedule, so wanting forward, the Castellinis are raking in $ this 12 months, and must be shocked by this flip of fortune. The FO can probably work commerce or two for pitching this offseason, however they need to even be energetic within the FA market, IMO. Inform me there’s hope! And if not, any solution to estimate how far more the franchise may be price in a sale now than we might have thought in April?

Ben Clemens: I want there was a method to try this, however I don’t realize it. I feel they need to be energetic within the FA market, however they haven’t actually made sturdy indications to that impact that I’ve seen

Greg: It appears like we’re watching Julio turning into the very best Non-Ohtani in baseball proper now, doesn’t it? By no means in my complete life  have I seen a  hitter look so assured.

Ben Clemens: That’s fairly powerful on Mookie and Acuna

Ben Clemens: however sure, I used to be by no means anxious about rating Julio within the prime 3 of commerce worth although he was struggling on the time

Ben Clemens: identical to, yeah, watch the dude

Ben Clemens: you’ll get it

John Mozeliak: do you consider me when i say 3 exterior SP for 2024?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, it’s not like they’re gonna play in a dome

Ben Clemens: For certain, and all the time a fan of shouting out Ben Lindbergh

Sanford: Re: the deception query, undecided if it’s what you’re searching for however Ben Lindbergh wrote a wonderful piece for the Ringer a pair years in the past about Yusmeiro Petit and the way groups have been serious about deception

J: Mookie positively is the very best black American-born participant, however I feel you’re forgetting Choose.

Ben Clemens: Ah yeah truthful, I suppose it’s near being shut

Appa Yip Yip: Effectively what class are you taking part in? Who’s in your social gathering? Isn’t Karlach the very best?

Ben Clemens: I’m not that far into it however sorcerer, and since I don’t know D&D even just a little i did githyanki sorcerer, my buddies have instructed me that’s dangerous. I’ve Karlach/Shadowheart/Wyll however I would combine it up a bit

Nick: Who’s your AL ROY choose, provided that Jung is damage and Brown is struggling?

Farhandrew Zaidman: SPEED ROUND: Are Michael Busch and/or Miguel Vargas a part of LA’s long run plan?

Ethan: Is that this Joey Votto’s final season?

Ben Clemens: I hope not, however sure

Visitor: Have you ever been watching any of the LLWS?

Sandy: Assuming Grey & Lopez are locks to begin the primary two video games of a wild card collection, who do you will have pitch sport three, Ober, Maeda, Ryan or Keuchel?

Dan: I keep in mind studying about a health care provider who gave eye checks to all of the dodgers minor leaguers after which stated who can be good primarily based on that. And it was two future rookies of the 12 months.I additionally recommended Mike Piazza would grow to be good. Not a big sufficient pattern to make sure it wasn’t luck but in addition lengthy sufficient in the past the attention science has superior a ton since then

Visitor: As you stated, Lindor is quietly having an ideal season. Why is it so quiet? His first three years within the NY market, no all-star video games, no gold gloves, not completely handled by media and non-Mets followers like an thrilling famous person in his prime, and but he’s put up 15+ WAR. Why?

Ben Clemens: no concept, it’s baffling

Nolan: Battle of the Colours: Hunter Greene or Hunter Brown, for those who can solely have one for a profession.

Ben Clemens: Brown by a nostril

Ben Clemens: alright, have an ideal day everybody, I’ve to go make lunch after which purchase a brand new telephone

Ben Clemens: speak to you subsequent week