Bo Bichette Nets a Three-12 months Extension

Because the Blue Jays try and construct upon final yr’s 92-win season — their greatest since 2015 when it comes to won-loss report — they’ve locked up one in all their younger, homegrown stars. Earlier this week, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson Smith reported that the staff had agreed to a multiyear extension with Bo Bichette, thereby avoiding what might have been a contentious arbitration listening to. The phrases of the deal have been unclear on the time, however on Thursday, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Bichette will obtain a three-year, $33.6 million assure, with escalators and incentives that may improve the overall worth of the deal to as a lot as $40.65 million.

Via the Related Press, Bichette is assured $6.1 million this yr ($3.25 million as a signing bonus and $2.85 million in wage) after which $11 million in 2024 and $16.5 million in ’25. Profitable an MVP award would improve his subsequent wage by $2.25 million, whereas ending second or third would add $1.25 million, and ending fourth or fifth would add $250,000. The extension buys out all three of his arbitration years — his age-25 via 27 seasons — with out delaying his free company, as he enters 2023 with three years and 63 days of service time. With out the deal, he and the Blue Jays would have headed into arbitration with the 2 sides as far aside as any within the majors this yr. According to MLB Commerce Rumors, the $2.5 million hole between the filings of Bichette ($7.5 million) and the Blue Jays ($5 million) matched that of the Astros and Kyle Tucker; Houston won that hearing on Thursday.

Bichette is coming off an excellent season, albeit one thing of an inconsistent one. He set a full-season excessive with a 129 wRC+ through a .290/.333/.469 line with 24 homers and 13 steals. His 4.5 WAR tied with Corey Seager for 14th within the American League and second amongst AL shortstops behind Xander Bogaerts, 0.1 WAR forward of Carlos Correa. That stated, his season was an uneven one which uncovered issues in a number of areas of his sport. He hit simply .213/.237/.298 (50 wRC+) in April and .257/.302/.418 (105 wRC+) via the primary half — lacking the AL All-Star staff the place he made it in 2021 — earlier than batting .337/.378/.543 (163 wRC+) within the second half, capped by a .406/.444/.662 (217 wRC+) September. Fourteen of his 24 homers got here earlier than the break, however so did 100 of his 165 strikeouts; he trimmed his Ok% from 24.3% earlier than the break to 19.2% after.

On that notice, Baseball Prospectus’ Robert Orr noted that Bichette is likely one of the sport’s extra prolific hitters in relation to utilizing the alternative subject, however within the first half of the season, he might have been increasing his zone an excessive amount of — and finally putting out too usually — whereas trying to compensate for the dip in energy that got here from the much less energetic ball. With a extra disciplined method later within the season, his outcomes going oppo improved significantly. FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera linked that second half rebound to mechanical changes, most notably improved rotational route through the introduction of a scissor kick: “Main as much as contact, Bichette is transferring vitality in a special route than he did in July to maintain his middle of mass the place it must be. The scissor kick shops the vitality in his hips and makes his rotation transfer up via his backbone…” Rivera has GIFs galore as an example his factors, and his piece is price a full learn (as is Orr’s).

Anyway, right here’s how Bichette’s general swing tendencies and opposite-field manufacturing look through our splits, which point out that he led the majors general with 72 opposite-field hits in addition to 30 for additional bases. I’ve used the All-Star break because the cutoff:

And right here’s a have a look at his rolling O-Swing and oppo charges in addition to wRC+:

After the All-Star break, Bichette hit to the alternative subject with a a lot higher frequency and with way more authority. Statcast’s depend of reverse subject batted balls doesn’t match up precisely with that of Sports activities Data Options, which powers the splits and graph above; the counts through Baseball Savant are of 90 opposite-field balls earlier than the break, 84 after. Nonetheless, the information is in step with the observations above. Within the first half Bichette averaged 91.1 mph on balls he hit to the alternative subject, barreling 6.7% and producing a .375 xwOBA, whereas within the second half he averaged 92.0 mph with an 11.9% barrel fee and a .417 xwOBA (to not point out a .586 wOBA, 223 factors greater than his first-half mark on such balls).

It took a whole lot of work, however Bichette’s second-half rebound helped him roughly replicate the offensive impression of his 2021 season (.298/.343/.484, 122 wRC+). Even so, his sport wasn’t fairly as robust in a pair different areas. Contributor Leo Morgenstern famous that his baserunning took a step again in 2022; not solely did he drop from 25 stolen bases (with only one caught stealing!) to 13 (with eight caught stealing) however from 6.9 baserunning runs to -2.7; the 9.6-run drop was second solely to Starling Marte’s 12.5-run drop. Through Statcast, Bichette’s dash velocity fell off by half a foot per second, from 28.0 (74th percentile) to 27.5 (52nd percentile), and his home-to-first time equally rose. A few of the drop might have been age-related decline, some might have been season-to-season variance (“His 2021 season represented one thing like his 80% percentile final result, whereas his 2022 season represented one thing like his 20% percentile final result,” wrote Morgenstern). It’s additionally doable that minor accidents slowed him down, regardless that he performed 159 video games for the second yr in a row; a participant doesn’t method 162 with out toughing out just a few points right here and there.

Maybe extra troubling was Bichette’s defensive decline. By DRS he plummeted from +2 to -16, and by UZR the drop was from -5.2 to -15.4, although by RAA the dip was solely from -4 to -5, and in 103 extra defensive innings. The assorted elements of these metrics counsel that not solely did his vary lower considerably, however that he wasn’t pretty much as good on the double play as earlier than, and his throwing suffered as nicely. With out getting too wrapped up in what a single yr’s metrics inform us, it’s price noting, for instance, that through Baseball Prospectus’ brand-new Range Defense Added, Bichette was 2.1% beneath common when it comes to his performs made, and that by Stacast’s newish arm-strength measure, his 84.8 mph common aggressive throw was 1.1 mph beneath common for the place, rating sixteenth of the 32 shortstops with at the very least 300 such throws.

The selection of defensive inputs shades the general view of Bichette’s season. By our model of WAR (which makes use of OAA for vary), Bichette’s 4.5 WAR was merely half a win shy of his 2021 complete. By bWAR (which makes use of DRS), Bichette fell from 5.9 in 2021 to three.6 in ’22, tied for thirty first within the AL general and sixth amongst AL shortstops.

For all the nits I’ve picked, we’re nonetheless speaking a few participant who at the very least by our measures was the fifth-most helpful amongst gamers 24 or youthful in 2022:

Notice that the Blue Jays have three of the highest 11 gamers there (I went to 11 to be able to embrace Vladito), and that because the two second-generation Jays broke in circa 2019, Bichette has been the extra productive of the 2, 11.8 WAR to 9.1, however he’s going to make lower than half of Guerrero’s $14.5 million wage from his first yr of arbitration eligibility.

Through Dan Szymborski, right here’s how Bichette’s ZiPS projection seems over the course of the extension:

That appears like your sometimes conservative projection for a participant who’s produced a 127 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR per 650 PA up to now and remains to be just a few weeks away from his twenty fifth birthday. Given the brand new dimensions of the Rogers Centre, I’d positively take the over, as a result of the adjustments seem to favor lefties and oppo-hitting righties. Via The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, these adjustments specifically stand out:

• Left-centre subject can be 368 ft (beforehand 375 ft) whereas the wall top will improve to 11 ft 2 inches. Proper-centre subject can be 359 ft (beforehand 375 ft) whereas the wall can be 14 ft 4 inches excessive.

• The left-centre energy alley can be 381 ft (beforehand 383 ft), whereas the wall top will improve to 12 ft 9 inches. The appropriate-centre energy alley can be 372 ft (beforehand 383 ft), whereas the wall will improve to 10 ft 9 inches excessive.

Even with out accounting for a possible enhance from the ballpark, the ZiPS contract valuation for Bichette’s extension is $33.9 million, which is about as on-the-nose as one can get with these estimates. All of which is to say that his extension seems to be a good one, neither an enormous cut price for the staff or a steal for the participant. It doesn’t mess with the timing of his free company, nor does it preclude the opportunity of a longer-term, nine-figure deal if that’s what the 2 sides need. In mild of that, it is going to be fascinating to see whether or not the staff works out a multiyear cope with Guerrero or approaches Kirk (who’s one yr away from arbitration eligibility) or Alek Manoah (two years away) with extension presents to additional preserve the staff’s aggressive core. However one factor’s for certain: they’ve their shortstop for now.