Lars Nootbaar: The Sabermetric Stud

Lars Nootbaar enjoying in school

Lars Nootbaar is understood for having probably the greatest names in baseball. His identify additionally picked up a bunch of consideration on the commerce deadline final yr when the Cardinals elected to commerce CF Harrison Bader to the Yankees and did not land Juan Soto. This led to Nootbaar changing into an on a regular basis OF for the Cardinals within the 2nd half and lots of people questioned whether or not betting this a lot on a younger OF with little to no expertise could be price it. Nonetheless, Nootbaar shortly grew to become a fan favourite of the Cardinals and ended up placing collectively a stable yr in case you simply have a look at his baseline numbers. Nevertheless, in case you dive just a bit deeper it’s simple to see that Nootbaar had an elite season by sabermetric requirements and he’s trying like he could have an especially vibrant future.

Lars Nootbaar first began as a middle-of-the-road prospect popping out of Highschool. He was ranked five hundredth within the Nation and 146th within the state of California within the HS class of 2015. He dedicated to USC and noticed early enjoying time as a freshman as he appeared in 33 video games and posted a .634 OPS. He continued to be a stable participant at USC over the subsequent 2 years as an OF/1B that was sound defensively and will hit effectively sufficient. He was capable of play effectively sufficient to go away USC after his junior yr and enter the MLB draft. Nootbar was chosen within the Eighth spherical by the Cardinals within the 2018 MLB draft. After getting drafted, Nootbaar was seen as a undertaking kinda man. Regardless of him being a giant man at 6’3, he was far more of a singles man who was superb at avoiding strikeouts. He was additionally seen as a nonathlete and his defensive means could be restricted to first base. So to say the expectations from Lars Nootbaar as an MLB participant have been low is an understatement.

Nootbaar’s first yr within the minors (2019) was higher than most individuals anticipated as he was capable of preserve a excessive BA and get on base at a really stable clip whereas maintaining an excellent BB/Okay price. He was capable of make it as much as AA in 2019 the place he continued to be a productive participant. One other huge shock was that he was capable of play OF and did it very effectively, which was huge for his growth because it helped him acquire extra worth among the many Cardinals group.

These numbers will not be precisely elite however they have been nonetheless stable sufficient. Nevertheless Nootbaar was nonetheless non seen as a giant prospect, he was not on the Cardinal’s prime 30 prospect rating and by no means did seem on the rating. After not having the ability to play in 2020, Nootbaar began the 2021 season in AAA. The 23-year-old was shortly going to place his identify on the map along with his efficiency in 2021.

Nootbaar was going off in AAA Memphis and ultimately as a consequence of some accidents and tough performances obtained a name to the large leagues. Simply to point out how loopy this fast rise or Nootbaar was let’s evaluation actual fast how spectacular this early name to the bigs was. Nootbaar was an Eighth-round choose and seen as nearly a non-prospect, and his first season {of professional} baseball was by all means stable however didn’t even increase sufficient eyebrows to place him on the Cardinal’s prime 30 prospect record. Then after taking a yr off as a consequence of covid, he comes again and mashes at AAA and finds himself on the MLB roster by June of 2021. Nootbaar was capable of make his debut after lower than 150 minor-league video games regardless of being a really low prospect. That is extremely uncommon and a few folks even questioned what warranted this call-up so early, however the reply is straightforward. Nootbaar has proven all through his baseball profession that he can put the bat on the ball and keep away from strikeouts. This on prime of the appropriate outfield play that he had been displaying led to his early call-up. The Cardinals wanted somebody to place the bat on the ball and play stable protection and Nootbaar appeared like he was the proper man for that. Nevertheless, after his first 2 call-ups, there was nonetheless some query as as to whether this man had what it took to play within the majors.

These numbers will not be good however there was nonetheless some promise there. For instance, he was nonetheless maintaining his strikeouts low and he was additionally hitting the ball very arduous and getting unfortunate. The primary ball he hit within the majors posted a 108.4 Exit Velo and was a flyout. Actually, in these 30 PA, he hit 4 balls with exit velos of 95 or better that ended up being outs. If even 2 of these hits fall his BA goes to .230 and his OBP goes to .333 and that is far more stable. So it’s secure to say the Nootbaar deserved a 2nd likelihood at success and he was going to get it. The Cardinals traded away their 4th outfielder Lane Thomas which led to Nootbaar getting a promotion to the large leagues on the finish of July 2021. That commerce on prime of Harrison Bader’s damage considerations resulted in Nootbaar enjoying quite a lot of the 2nd half of the season. Nootbaar took this chance and ran with it and was capable of earn his spot, to say the least.

Nootbaar was superb within the 2nd half for the Cardinals and earned his spot on the workforce for the subsequent season. He was used quite a bit as a defensive alternative and pinch hitter quite a bit which he noticed success in. Nootbaar was capable of take a small quantity of enjoying time and do absolutely the most with it. Diving into the small quantity of superior stats he produced this yr; Nootbaar had a far above-average dash pace and arm power and likewise had a stable max exit velo. One other constructive factor seen from Nootbaar was the very fact he was capable of hit lefties very effectively on prime of being first rate in opposition to righties.

Heading into the 2022 season Nootbaar was seen as a 4th OF for the Cardinals who may very well be used for pinch-hitting and late-game protection if wanted. Nevertheless, as a consequence of an damage to Harrison Bader and later his commerce, Nootbaar grew to become the Cardinal’s full-time RF by the top of June. As talked about early the Cardinals have been rumored to be within the Soto sweepstakes nonetheless the Cardinals weren’t capable of land which led to extra strain being placed on Nootbaars shoulders. But once more, he was capable of step as much as the competitors and performed very effectively in 2022, to say the least.

These numbers are very stable and have been a shock to most. He stored up his excessive stroll price whereas additionally reducing down on strikeouts from his rookie yr. His energy surge was sudden, to say the least, as he went from a man that had zero to no extra-base hit potential to a man who was doing it at an elite degree. Nootbaar did this whereas additionally enjoying elite protection on the sphere. Nevertheless, regardless of these numbers being very respectable, they don’t seize how good Nootbaar was. To that, we should look deeper into superior analytics to point out his true worth.

These numbers are extremely spectacular and practically remarkable for somebody of his age and expertise. He hit the ball very arduous which we noticed out of him his rookie yr however after gaining a full season he was downright superb. The mix of hitting a ball that tough that always, his excessive stroll price, and his low chase price is uncommon. To point out how spectacular that is, Nootbaar was 1 of 6 gamers to publish an avg exit velo and BB% within the ninetieth percentile or larger. These different 5 gamers embrace 3 of the most effective gamers in baseball: Decide, Yordan, and Schwarber, after which 2 of essentially the most underrated gamers in baseball: Yandy Diaz and Ji-Man Choi. It is secure to say that what Nootbaar did this yr was extraordinarily spectacular and really uncommon; particularly for a participant along with his lack of expertise.

Heading into this subsequent 2023 season; Nootbaar is projected to begin for the Cardinals within the RF and sure will likely be a key piece. Streamer has Nootbaar projected as a 124 wRC+ and a couple of.5 fWAR which might be very stable from him. Anticipate him to regress barely on the plate, however along with his contact/energy/protection/persistence combo, he ought to nonetheless be an elite participant. Lots of people know Nootbaar due to his identify, however he wants to begin being recognized as a result of he’s superb at baseball.

Sources:

Good Recreation

SB Nation

Baseball reference

Baseball Savant

FanGraphs